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Early Warning Signals in EHS: Why Near Misses and Other Risks Are Often Missed

Posted on April 8, 2026April 22, 2026

In March 2005, the BP Texas City refinery experienced a catastrophic explosion during the startup of the isomerization (ISOM) unit, killing 15 workers and injuring more than 180 others. During startup, the unit was overfilled with highly flammable hydrocarbons, far beyond safe operating limits. Operators relied on outdated and inaccurate level indicators, and the unit’s blowdown system vented flammable liquid and vapor directly to the atmosphere rather than to a flare. As pressure increased, a geyser‑like release formed a large vapor cloud, which ignited near nearby trailers used as temporary offices.

Critically, this was not a sudden or isolated failure. Similar startup problems had occurred multiple times at the same unit in the years leading up to the explosion. Near misses, abnormal startups, equipment concerns, procedural deviations, and audit findings were documented, but they were treated as routine challenges rather than escalating indicators of systemic risk. As a result, the startup proceeded with diminished safety and resulting in a fatal chemical incident.

The BP Texas City case is not ultimately a failure of procedures or reporting systems. It is a failure of risk perception. Early warning signals were present including near misses, procedural deviations, recurring alarms, and equipment concerns but they were perceived as routine, acceptable, or isolated rather than as indicators of growing startup risk. When risks are normalized, early signals lose their urgency, even when the consequences are severe.

The 2005 BP Texas City explosion illustrates a critical lesson for high-hazard industries: major incidents rarely begin with a single failure. They are almost always preceded by early warning signs that are visible long before an event occurs. 

The takeaway isn’t about reliving the incident; it’s about understanding why early warning signals did not trigger prevention. 

This case highlights a key EHS term: 
Near Miss — an unplanned event that did not cause injury, damage, or loss, but had the potential to. Near misses are not “close calls” to ignore; they provide valuable data that reveal where safe work practices are drifting before consequences develop. 

Why Near Miss Reporting Drives Prevention 

During startup of a new operations one of the most risk-intensive phases of operations, equipment conditions change rapidly, workloads increase, and controls have less margin for error. In this environment, small deviations often predict where safeguards are slipping: 

  • A temporary override that becomes normal 
  • A procedural step skipped “just this once” 
  • A recurring equipment alarm that gets cleared or ignored instinctively 
  • A task that requires repeated reminders to be completed correctly 
  • A control that “usually holds” without verification 

Individually, these signals look minor. Collectively, they map a pattern of risk. 

Near miss reporting and learning session provide  teams visibility into these early signals so they can act while the hazard is still controllable. 

What Near Miss Reporting Makes Possible 

When near misses are actively captured and reviewed, organizations gain: 

  • Early identification of deteriorating safeguards  and work practices
  • Evidence to adjust procedures before failure 
  • Insight into whether training, supervision, or workload is affecting performance 
  • Clarity around recurring equipment or process concerns 
  • A feedback loop that keeps startup risks visible to leaders 

Even more importantly, near miss reporting gives teams a safe way to say, “Something isn’t working the way it should,” without attributing blame. 

The Cultural Shift That Reduces Startup Risk 

Preventing major events isn’t just about having procedures, it’s about creating an environment where warning signs are surfaced, shared, and acted upon. It’s an organization where psychological safety is present and learning from failure happens often. Mature organizations: 

  • Treat near misses as improvement information, not an opportunity to blame workers
  • Use audits and inspections to identify gaps in reporting and procedural execution 
  • Reinforce learning from near miss patterns and trends rather than isolate events 
  • Recognize and reward early hazard identification 

This approach shifts the focus from “Who made a mistake?” to “Where did our safe work practices falter and how do we strengthen them going forward?” 

Where Audits and Program Management Strengthen Prevention 

The BP Texas City case reinforces that good outcomes don’t always mean strong EHS systems. Many organizations use: 

  • Audits (OSHA, Fire) to evaluate whether critical controls are functioning during startup, and 
  • EHS Program Management including monitoring and continuous improvement to embed near miss learning into operating discipline, training, and decision-making 

Together, these systems uncovers risks and make them actionable, and shared across the organization.

For teams strengthening near miss reporting, learning culture, and incident prevention practices, our team at EHS Compliance Services Inc. provides practical, operations-focused support tailored to real facility risks.

We help organizations strengthen how early warning signals are identified, shared, and acted on across the enterprise.

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